Translated with AI assistance
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz in the spring of 2026 nearly halted traffic through one of the world’s main energy corridors. Under normal conditions, more than 20% of the global oil supply passes through it, and tankers account for 60–70% of all traffic. A study by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) shows that a disruption in Hormuz affects far more than just the oil market – following energy prices, fertilizers become more expensive, inflation accelerates, industrial activity slows down, and borrowing costs rise.
According to the study author’s calculations, a standard reduction in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has historically been followed, one year later, by a decline in global industrial production of approximately 1.5% and an increase in global consumer prices of about 1%. For disruptions caused specifically by supply shortages, real energy and fertilizer prices turned out to be 15–17% higher after 12 months.
It is important to note that this is not a direct calculation of the damage from a complete closure of the strait in 2026, but merely a historical analogy. The current crisis has proven far more severe than the typical fluctuations on which the BIS model is based: for the first time in the entire observation period, traffic through a major maritime hub fell to almost zero within just a few days. Therefore, the consequences of such a shock could be significantly broader than historical estimates suggest.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is especially dangerous because it combines several problems at once. As energy becomes more expensive, industrial and transportation costs rise. Pricier gas and oil drive up fertilizer prices, and through them, food prices.
But Hormuz is just one of several «bottlenecks» in the global economy. The BIS views such routes as «single points of failure» for global trade: if movement stops in one place, the consequences quickly ripple throughout the entire supply chain.
The Strait of Malacca is critical for Asian trade and especially for energy supplies to China. The decline in traffic through it is linked to rising energy prices and deteriorating financing conditions.
The Suez Canal and Bab el-Mandeb form the main short route between Asia and Europe. When vessels are forced to sail around Africa, delivery times, fuel consumption, insurance premiums, and logistics costs all increase. The study shows that following the Red Sea crisis, traffic through both routes dropped sharply, while the flow around the Cape of Good Hope, on the contrary, increased.
There are also less obvious risk points. The Strait of Gibraltar is important for access to the ports of Northern Europe, and disruptions there noticeably affect credit markets in some models. The Taiwan Strait and other East Asian routes handle even larger shipping volumes than Hormuz, although their impact on global production is currently less significant.
The study’s main conclusion is simple: the global economy depends not only on how much oil, gas, or goods are produced, but also on the few narrow maritime corridors through which they must pass. Hormuz proved to be the most sensitive of them all: among the world’s largest transport hubs, it is precisely its disruptions that most consistently drive up prices and slow down production at the same time.
