Translated with AI assistance
Over the next quarter century, Sub-Saharan Africa will need to accommodate an additional 748 million people in its cities: the region’s urban population will grow from 913 million in 2025 to 1.7 billion by 2050, notes the World Bank in a new report. A significant portion of the urban infrastructure that will be needed by mid-century has not yet been built.
For businesses, this means one of the largest future markets for urban infrastructure – from housing and public transport to power grids, water supply, and commercial real estate. But the World Bank warns: if cities continue to grow haphazardly, the scale of urbanization alone will not deliver the expected surge in productivity. Today, cities in the region generate on average nearly 50% less economic activity than the world’s most efficient cities with comparable populations.
At the same time, about 15 million young people enter the region’s labor market every year. It is cities that must provide a significant share of new jobs through the concentration of companies, workers, and sales markets. So far, this mechanism works less effectively than in other rapidly urbanizing regions: a significant portion of employment remains informal and low-paid, while the region’s average GDP per capita has stagnated at approximately $4,400.
The map of Africa’s largest cities will also change. By 2050, the region will have five megacities with populations exceeding 10 million people.
According to World Bank estimates, the population of Luanda will increase by approximately 78% – from 11.4 million to 20.3 million people, and the capital of Angola will surpass Lagos, which will grow from 12.8 million to 16.2 million.
Over 25 years, Bamako will grow by approximately 80% – from 4.2 million to 7.6 million residents, while Mogadishu’s population will increase by 64% – from 4.4 million to 7.2 million. Johannesburg will grow from 7.1 million to 8.9 million residents, but will drop from fifth to eighth place among the region’s largest cities.
The main problem is that cities are growing faster than their infrastructure. Only about 32% of the region’s residents live within walking distance of public transport, and a quarter of companies consider transport a serious or very serious constraint on business. Urban workers in sub-Saharan Africa spend on average 42% more on transport than city dwellers in other regions, and spend more time commuting.
The problem is not limited to transportation. About 71% of companies in the region experience power outages, roughly one in four faces water supply issues, and just as many cite transportation as a major or very serious obstacle to doing business. Data from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys also show that power outages affect approximately seven out of ten companies in Sub-Saharan Africa.
As a result, the population concentrates in cities, but a full-fledged agglomeration effect—where the proximity of companies, workers, and suppliers reduces costs and increases productivity—often fails to materialize. The World Bank attributes this to unplanned urban expansion, the fragmentation of business activity, and high infrastructure costs.
A significant share of future growth will occur in rapidly expanding urban outskirts. The World Bank recommends taking action before mass construction begins: laying out the road network and reserving land for transport and utility infrastructure in advance, while it is still relatively inexpensive to do so.
At the same time, the investment market is not limited to megacities. Sub-Saharan Africa has more than 15,000 small towns, and the World Bank recommends concentrating infrastructure investments primarily where there is economic potential—for example, along transport corridors and near new production centers.
State budgets are insufficient for such urbanization. The World Bank recommends expanding cities’ own-source revenues, including by modernizing real estate taxation through digital technologies, and placing greater emphasis on public-private partnerships.
For investors, the main takeaway from the report is that a significant portion of Africa’s future market has not yet been physically built. The region still needs to construct roads, power grids, water supply systems, housing, transport hubs, and new urban districts for hundreds of millions of future residents.
And it is precisely the sequence of construction that will determine the economic outcome. If infrastructure appears before chaotic development, cities get a chance to boost productivity and attract private investment. If it comes later, urbanization turns into costlier logistics, service shortages, and lost productivity. The World Bank emphasizes that decisions about where and how African cities grow today will shape their investment landscape for decades to come.
