Translated with AI assistance
The World Bank has raised its growth forecast for the Sub-Saharan African economy in 2026 from 4.1% to 4.3%. For businesses from BRICS countries, this means market expansion in two areas at once: traditional infrastructure and industry, and the rapidly growing demand for digital solutions, data centers, and applied artificial intelligence.
The forecast has been upgraded for nearly three-quarters of the countries in the region. Among the major economies, the World Bank raised its expectations for Nigeria, Ethiopia, Angola, and Zambia, attributing this to the results of economic reforms and improved governance. Back in April, the bank had projected regional growth of 4.1% and warned about the impact of expensive energy, high debt, and the conflict in the Middle East.
At the same time, this growth has so far had little impact on household incomes. According to the bank’s estimates, GDP per capita will increase by only 1.8% in 2026, compared with 1.6% a year earlier. The region’s public debt has stabilized at around 57% of GDP; however, about half of the countries are either already in default or experiencing serious difficulties in servicing their debt.
One of the main focal points of the new forecast is artificial intelligence. The World Bank believes that Africa does not necessarily need to compete with the United States or China in terms of investment volumes in the most powerful models and computing centers. Relatively inexpensive applied solutions could deliver a greater impact: AI for education, diagnosing animal diseases and assisting farmers, automating small business accounting, and other everyday tasks. To accelerate adoption, the bank proposes developing shared data centers and data protection regulations.
A significant market is taking shape here for companies from BRICS countries. China and India can offer equipment, cloud services, telecom and AI solutions; Russia and Brazil can provide software products and technologies for education, agriculture, and the public sector; while investors from other member states can participate in financing data centers, energy projects, and digital infrastructure. This is especially important for Ethiopia and South Africa, which are themselves BRICS members and can serve as regional hubs for further expansion into the African market.
Risks, however, remain high: a protracted conflict in the Middle East, expensive energy, the El Niño weather phenomenon, high interest rates, and debt servicing costs could once again slow down growth. But the current upward revision of the forecast shows that African economies are weathering the external shock more resiliently than expected in the spring.
