Wheat has risen in price by more than 30% since the beginning of the year, while rice in Asia has increased by 10–13%.
Translated with AI assistance
Global food prices could accelerate noticeably by the end of 2026 and maintain elevated momentum in 2027. The main reasons are disruptions to maritime shipping, high fuel and fertilizer costs, El Niño-related drought, and the gradual depletion of reserves that have so far restrained price growth. Reuters reached this conclusion based on data from the FAO, the International Grains Council, and market participants.
Since the beginning of 2026, wheat prices have risen by more than 30%, while rice prices in key Asian exporting countries have increased by 10–13%. The FAO World Food Price Index reached 136 points in September — its highest level since November 2022. According to the World Bank, in the third quarter, food inflation exceeded overall inflation in 22% of the 150 countries studied, compared to 14% in the previous quarter.
The pressure is especially noticeable in the largest economies of the Global South. In Indonesia, rice has reached record prices, while wheat imports in September fell by 41% year-on-year to 491,000 tons; some flour mills are operating below capacity due to a shortage of raw materials. Vegetable oil in the country has risen in price by approximately 7% since the beginning of the year.
In India, sugar prices have reached a historic high following the weakest monsoon in over a decade, while sugar, onions, and pulses rose by more than 10% in September alone. In Egypt, unsubsidized bread has increased in price by approximately 25% since July, from 4 to 5 Egyptian pounds per large loaf.
For food manufacturers, a new wave of inflation means rising costs across several categories at once – raw materials, fertilizers, fuel, logistics, and currency-related expenses. Companies that purchase raw materials under three- to six-month contracts are already beginning to renew them at higher prices, while weak national currencies amplify the effect.
For BRICS, the consequences will not be uniform. India, Indonesia, and Egypt are already facing rising prices for staple goods, so for them food inflation is becoming both a macroeconomic and a social risk. Countries heavily dependent on imports of grain, fertilizers, and fuel are particularly sensitive to transport disruptions and exchange rates.
For major agricultural exporters within BRICS, rising global prices may, on the contrary, support export revenues. But even here, the benefit is not guaranteed: expensive fertilizers, fuel, and transportation increase production costs, while accelerating domestic prices may push governments to impose export restrictions — precisely the kind of risk that Reuters identifies as one of the factors capable of further worsening global supply.
The main risk for 2027 is not a single poor harvest or a single logistics failure, but the simultaneous impact of several factors, when food inflation begins to amplify the shortage on its own: rising prices push countries to build up reserves and impose export restrictions, which squeezes the global market even further.
