Translated with AI assistance
China has crossed another important demographic threshold: for the first time, the country’s elderly population has outnumbered its children. In 2025, for every 100 people of working age there were 23.1 people over 65 and 22 children under 15. Just ten years ago, the ratio was significantly lower — the elderly accounted for 15% of the total working-age population.
In absolute terms, the gap is already approaching 11 million people. At the end of 2025, China was home to 223.65 million people over the age of 65 and 212.76 million children under 15. And the entire 60+ group numbered 323.38 million people – almost a quarter of the country’s population.
At the same time, the population itself is also shrinking. In 2025, China lost another 3.39 million residents, ending the year with a population of 1.405 billion people. Over the course of the year, 7.92 million children were born in the country and 11.31 million people died, while the birth rate fell to 5.63 per thousand population. This marks the fourth consecutive year of population decline.
The economic consequences are quite tangible. The 16–59 age group, which accounts for the bulk of the labor force, has shrunk to 851.36 million people, or 60.6% of the population. Fewer workers must fund the pension and healthcare systems for a growing number of elderly people — while at the same time, the cost of labor shortages and the importance of automation are rising.
But China’s aging is not just a problem for the budget and the labor market. 323 million potential consumers over the age of 60 are forming a huge new market — the silver economy — and Beijing clearly intends to make it a new source of domestic demand. In January, eight agencies unveiled a package of 14 measures to develop the silver economy. They cover five areas: supporting companies, developing sales channels and services, implementing technologies, improving business conditions, and providing additional government support.
In practical terms, the authorities want to expand the market far beyond traditional nursing homes. Companies are encouraged to develop home care, accompaniment of the elderly to medical appointments, and mobile care services, while large operators are urged to scale up such services through a network model. At the same time, services for the elderly are being integrated into the system of so-called 15-minute neighborhoods, where care, household services, food, and retail should all be available close to home. By mid-2025, the country already had about 6,300 such pilot zones, which were used by 129 million people.
A separate initiative targets consumption. The authorities propose creating «silver» shopping streets and special zones in supermarkets, opening sales and rental outlets for goods for the elderly, and launching themed fairs, discounts, and coupons. Internet platforms are advised to simplify their interfaces for older users and create dedicated «silver» channels; more than ten popular online platforms have already adapted their services for the elderly audience.
But the most interesting part of the program for businesses is related to technology. Among the priorities are humanoid robots, exoskeletons, health monitoring systems, rehabilitation devices, smart home technologies, and even brain-computer interfaces. Support also extends to new categories of consumer goods – from easy-to-chew, high-protein foods to specialized clothing with heating, protection, and geolocation functions.
For businesses, China’s aging population works in two directions at once. On the one hand, there are fewer workers, greater pressure on the pension system, and a stronger incentive to replace human labor with technology. On the other hand, one of the world’s largest markets for goods and services for the elderly is emerging. By 2035, according to official estimates, the number of elderly people is expected to exceed 400 million. By that time, the volume of China’s silver economy could reach 30 trillion yuan – about $4.3 trillion.
Demographics, which until recently was discussed as a distant risk for China, is already noticeably reshaping the structure of its economy today.
