According to experts from Yakov and Partners, within ten years, more than a quarter of the vehicles on Russian roads will be driverless, reaching 80% by 2042. Despite facing certain technological challenges and the need to develop an appropriate infrastructure and legal framework, Russia confidently occupies a Top-3 spot in the ranking of countries’ readiness for introduction of autonomous vehicles, trailing only behind two BRICS partners, China and the UAE. Sergei Kazachkov summarized the main study conclusions in an article for BRICS Business Magazine.
The transport industry is undergoing a rapid transformation thanks to global initiatives aimed at reducing CO₂ emissions, spreading new technologies, and changing user preferences. So, the number of vehicles powered by alternative energy sources, electric and hybrid vehicles, is steadily rising. Car manufacturers and technology companies worldwide are focusing more and more on autonomous transport (AT).
Preconditions for AT Development
Safety Enhancement. Autonomous transport holds immense potential for boosting road safety. Globally, human error accounts for 90–95% of traffic accidents. According to official statistics, in 2023, Russia recorded 132,400 collisions, drivers having caused 88% of them. By enhancing autonomy levels and refining navigation algorithms, autonomous vehicles can minimize human influence on driving behaviour. Vehicles equipped with advanced systems will default to safe modes, adhering rigorously to traffic regulations and mitigating violations.
Urban Environment Improvement. A transition to autonomous transport promises to reshape urban landscapes. Driverless cars allow passengers to shift focus away from driving, encouraging increased reliance on car-sharing models. Between 2021 and 2023, combined carsharing and bike-sharing use rates rose from 6% to 9% in Russia. Estimates suggest this share could reach 20–25% by 2030. European studies indicate that one car-share vehicle takes the place of approximately 12–15 privately owned cars, impacting on both urban design and infrastructure planning. As autonomous vehicles proliferate, private car ownership will decline, giving way to broader use of autonomous ride-hailing services.
Cost Reduction. An increase in car-sharing will ensure more efficient use of transport and energy resources. Currently, in Russia, drivers’ wages account for 12–15% of total freight shipping costs. Autonomous vehicles will lower personnel costs and, according to calculations by the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation, boost commercial delivery speeds by 25% by 2030, simultaneously cutting transport costs by over 10%. Furthermore, advances in autonomous transport technologies and their wider application are expected to reduce the cost per kilometre for robotaxis in Russia by more than 50% between 2025 and 2030.
Time Savings. Integrating autonomous vehicles into everyday travel boosts convenience. Commuting times can be repurposed for socializing, entertainment or work-related tasks. Survey data show that 43% of Muscovites spend 30–60 minutes commuting, while 25% take less than half an hour. An additional 27% allocate 1–2 hours for their daily office-bound trips. Global comparisons illustrate similar patterns: Beijing averages 47.9‑minute commutes, New York City 33.2 minutes, and Paris 30 minutes.
The current development of these technologies hardly allows us to expect that driverless cars will flood city streets and highways anytime soon. Yet, in the foreseeable future, widespread adoption of autonomous transport seems entirely plausible, fitting perfectly into the concept of smart city development. Against this background, we carried out a study assessing the readiness of BRICS+, CIS member states, and Russia’s principal trading partners to introduce autonomous transport. The main results of this study are presented in the chart below.
China is the frontrunner in autonomous transport innovation. It implements comprehensive digitization programmes for road networks and tests extensively self-driving vehicles, including buses. Since 2022, pilot projects have permitted autonomous vehicles to operate freely on ordinary city streets.
The rapid proliferation of electric vehicles in China makes the transition to autonomous vehicles the next logical evolutionary step for the transport system.
Currently, the priority development direction involves creating a regulatory framework for governing operation of autonomous transport (AT), drawing on lessons learned from pilot projects in various parts of the country.
Russia, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia follow closely, prioritizing rigorous testing of autonomous passenger and commercial fleets. Both Middle Eastern nations are integrating these developments into national strategic plans: Vision Pro (Saudi Arabia) and Net Zero 2050 (UAE). Meanwhile, Russia’s commitment stems from its broader strategy for modernizing transport sectors, leveraging its advanced ICT sector and road network infrastructure.
In Russia, development of autonomous transport is an integral component of the long-term strategy for the transport sector. The country’s leading position is supported by highly developed information and telecommunication technologies, as well as road infrastructure, allowing AT to be used on major transport corridors and in megacities. Additionally, assessment of population income levels suggests that autonomous transport will gain traction as competitive offerings emerge.
Russia is actively developing autonomous transport technology initiatives as part of the digital transformation of the transport sector. The core directions for implementing digital technologies are outlined in the Transport Strategy, which determines the requisite measures up to 2030, with forecasts extending to 2035. For development of autonomous transport, the Strategy includes the following priorities:
Source: Kept, Study Country Readiness Rating for Implementation of Autonomous Transport.
The General Department of Traffic Management in Saudi Arabia has developed a comprehensive programme for modernizing the country’s transport network, adapting it for operation of autonomous transport (AT). Amendments have been made to traffic regulations, toughening environmental standards and safety requirements, while adjusting guidelines for law enforcement officers. Updated standards will become mandatory for designing, constructing, and maintaining all roads from 2025.
Given the high income levels among the population, it is anticipated that emergence of mass-produced autonomous vehicles will generate considerable demand from residents.
Within the UAE’s overall strategy, individual emirates adopt their own programmes tailored to meeting the specific needs of their cities and refine general goals for implementation of autonomous transport. Given the country’s high degree of digitalization, the road network is being developed to comply with the requirements for autonomous vehicles. Combined with the high income levels of the population, this will facilitate the rapid spread of autonomous transport on roads once self-driving cars become mainstream.
Brazil, Turkey, India, and Belarus are ranked lower primarily owing to absence government-backed strategies and funding for autonomous transport development. Brazil achieves a leading position in the rating owing to maximum scores across all criteria, apart from adequate household incomes and road infrastructure readiness. Adoption of autonomous transport faces obstacles such as an aging vehicle fleet (average age: 11 years), an overloaded charging infrastructure, and a shortage of skilled workers in the automotive sector exacerbated by low labour productivity.
On the other hand, India also boasts significant potential for developing autonomous transport owing to its capacious internal market and accessible manufacturing resources. Yet, despite having created two autonomous vehicle prototypes and registering 30 startups in the AT sector, government funding for these developments has not yet been announced. Trials are being conducted exclusively within two designated test centres. No manufacturing of components and supportive industries for autonomous transport has yet been established.
Indicators in the ratings of other countries we studied suggest that development of autonomous transport is not among their priority objectives.
2022
2023
2024
2025
Source: Kept, Study Country Readiness Rating for Implementation of Autonomous Transport.
Our research identified several factors constraining the current spread of autonomous transport. First, statistical proof is required of safety for autonomous vehicles on public roads. Before wide-scale implementation of AT, it is vital to confirm that such vehicles reliably collect, process, and correctly interpret external data through extensive testing across diverse terrains, road types, and varying climatic conditions. As of June 2024, only three out of sixteen countries examined have enacted legislation regulating autonomous transport on public roads. This reflects the lack of practical experience with autonomous vehicles on actual roads.
In addition to high-quality roads and their regulation, there should be a corresponding IT infrastructure capable of providing fast and reliable transfer of large amounts of data, as well as ensuring data protection. Current technologies under trial are expensive and non-serial-production items, meaning their application is limited in scope. To achieve economic feasibility, a transition is needed to mass production and implementation of these solutions.
Legal Regulation of Autonomous Transport*
Implemented (regulatory acts adopted): Russia, the UAE, Brazil
Under development: China, South Africa, Saudi Arabia
Non-existent: Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Belarus, Turkey, Moldova, India, Armenia
Source: Kept, Study Country Readiness Rating for Implementation of Autonomous Transport.
* The data on legal regulation is provided as of the date of the study’s preparation – the end of 2024.
For mass production to drive equally massive demand, the cost of ownership autonomous transport must match that associated with conventional driver-controlled vehicles, ensuring price competitiveness for users choosing between transportation methods.
Even with affordable prices, prospective buyers may still harbour distrust towards the new technology. This skepticism will diminish if consumers are confident that autonomous transport will deliver the desired levels of safety, reliability, and accountability.
Finally, adoption of autonomous transport in commercial and public sectors does not entail changes in user habits. Even so, on the personal transport level, the transition to autonomy is likely to happen through evolution of shared-use models such as taxis or car-sharing services, where responsibility for vehicle operation shifts to centralized operators.
Overall, successful development of autonomous transport can be attributed to the following key factors:
To sum up, I would emphasize that development of autonomous transport technologies together with gradual modernization of urban infrastructure constitute essential components of the concept of contemporary mobile solutions and smart cities. These cities integrate cutting-edge technologies into virtually every aspect of the life of society, ranging from transport to educational services and leisure activities. Such measures contribute to enhancing environmental quality, elevating safety levels, and improving overall urban mobility.
