This summer, experts forecast an 80% probability that this climate phenomenon will set in.
El Niño («little boy» in Spanish) is the warm phase of a natural climate cycle. Every few years, the water surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific warms abnormally, which raises temperatures around the world and triggers weather extremes — droughts in some places, floods in others.
Here is what the forecasts say: The World Meteorological Organization puts the probability of El Niño developing in June–August 2026 at 80%, and the probability that it will persist at least until November at around 90%. The exact strength of the peak is still in question, but most models agree: it will be at least moderate, and possibly strong.
Who will be affected most:
Asia. Southeast Asia (and Australia) typically suffer from drought. Asian farmers have already cut back on rice planting amid expensive energy and fertilizer driven by the U.S. conflict with Iran — and El Niño threatens supplies of the world’s most consumed crop, which feeds billions.
Africa. Parts of East Africa, by contrast, fall into a zone of heightened flood risk.
Latin America. UN agencies are already warning of growing food insecurity in Latin America and the Caribbean: drought threatens the «Dry Corridor» of Central America (El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua). Meanwhile, parts of South America face the risk of flooding.
The WEF warns that for the Global South, this climate shock could lead to a rising cost of living. Shortages of food and water quickly turn into a social and political risk: prices of basic goods rise — and poor families are the first to suffer. Then come export restrictions, price increases, protests, and migration pressure. History shows a horrifying scenario: the El Niño of 1877–78 caused simultaneous droughts in Asia, Africa, and Latin America and resulted in the Great Famine, which claimed up to 50 million lives.
The consequences can be mitigated if action is taken in advance. The Philippines has updated its national El Niño plan, South Africa is combining cash payments with drought-resistant seeds, and Malawi is building climate-smart agriculture into national policy.
