China and India are the winners, according to a new IMF forecast
Translated with AI assistance
The artificial intelligence boom has become one of the main factors supporting the global economy, and China and India have emerged among the countries benefiting from it the most. The International Monetary Fund raised its growth forecast for the global economy in 2026 from 3% to 3.1%, despite high energy prices and geopolitical risks.
The scale of AI’s impact is particularly evident in trade. From 2023 to 2025, global trade grew by 8.3%, while trade in artificial intelligence-related goods and services surged by 29%. Without this segment, overall trade growth would have amounted to just 4.6%, IMF Chief Economist Silvana Tenreyro stated at the annual meeting of the Fund and the World Bank in Bangkok.
The largest BRICS economies have become some of the main beneficiaries of this effect. According to IMF forecasts, India in 2026 will grow by 7% and will remain the fastest-growing major economy in the world. China – by 4.5%. By comparison, the global economy will expand by 3.1%, the US by 2.3%, and the eurozone by about 1.1%.
China occupies a central place in the emerging AI economy as both a producer and a major consumer of technological equipment. According to IMF estimates, the United States and China together account for more than three-quarters of net global demand for imports of microchips and other AI equipment. It is precisely this concentration of demand and production in a limited number of countries that largely determines today where global growth is being redistributed.
India is gaining a different kind of advantage: strong domestic momentum is combined with a growing technology sector and expanding AI-related demand. The IMF has raised its estimate of India’s growth to 7%, although a year earlier the economy grew by 7.7%.
However, far from everyone is a winner. According to IMF estimates, now only 32 countries account for 95% of global economic growth, whereas as recently as this spring there were 54 such countries. The Fund attributes the widening gap, among other things, to how deeply a given country’s economy is integrated into AI value chains and how heavily it depends on expensive imported energy.
However, the IMF also warns of risks. If the current massive investments in AI do not lead to a comparable increase in productivity, the effect on the economy will be weaker and inflationary pressure higher. A sharp reassessment of the profitability of AI projects could trigger a market correction and hit investment, while the high concentration of supply chains makes the global technology market more vulnerable to disruptions.
