{"id":4021,"date":"2026-06-08T16:31:54","date_gmt":"2026-06-08T13:31:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bricsmagazine.com\/en\/?p=4021"},"modified":"2026-06-08T16:31:56","modified_gmt":"2026-06-08T13:31:56","slug":"the-global-south-will-be-the-first-to-take-the-hit-from-el-nino","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bricsmagazine.com\/en\/main-issue\/agenda\/brics-plus-news\/the-global-south-will-be-the-first-to-take-the-hit-from-el-nino\/","title":{"rendered":"The Global South Will Be the First to Take the Hit from El Ni\u00f1o"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>This summer, experts forecast an 80% probability that this climate phenomenon will set in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>El Ni\u00f1o (&#171;little boy&#187; in Spanish) is the warm phase of a natural climate cycle. Every few years, the water surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific warms abnormally, which raises temperatures around the world and triggers weather extremes \u2014 droughts in some places, floods in others.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here is what the <a href=\"https:\/\/wmo.int\/news\/media-centre\/wmo-prepare-el-nino\">forecasts<\/a> say: The World Meteorological Organization puts the probability of El Ni\u00f1o developing in June\u2013August 2026 at 80%, and the probability that it will persist at least until November at around 90%. The exact strength of the peak is still in question, but most models agree: it will be at least moderate, and possibly strong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Who will be <a href=\"https:\/\/www.weforum.org\/stories\/2026\/06\/the-coming-el-nino-is-more-than-a-climate-event-it-is-a-systemic-shock\/\">affected<\/a> most: <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Asia. Southeast Asia (and Australia) typically suffer from drought. Asian farmers have already cut back on rice planting amid expensive energy and fertilizer driven by the U.S. conflict with Iran \u2014 and El Ni\u00f1o threatens supplies of the world&#8217;s most consumed crop, which feeds billions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Africa. Parts of East Africa, by contrast, fall into a zone of heightened flood risk. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Latin America. UN agencies are already warning of growing food insecurity in Latin America and the Caribbean: drought threatens the &#171;Dry Corridor&#187; of Central America (El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua). Meanwhile, parts of South America face the risk of flooding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The WEF warns that for the Global South, this climate shock could lead to a rising cost of living. Shortages of food and water quickly turn into a social and political risk: prices of basic goods rise \u2014 and poor families are the first to suffer. Then come export restrictions, price increases, protests, and migration pressure. History shows a horrifying scenario: the El Ni\u00f1o of 1877\u201378 caused simultaneous droughts in Asia, Africa, and Latin America and resulted in the Great Famine, which claimed up to 50 million lives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The consequences can be mitigated if action is taken in advance. The Philippines has updated its national El Ni\u00f1o plan, South Africa is combining cash payments with drought-resistant seeds, and Malawi is building climate-smart agriculture into national policy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This summer, experts forecast an 80% probability that this climate phenomenon will set in. El Ni\u00f1o (&#171;little boy&#187; in Spanish) is the warm phase of a natural climate cycle. Every few years, the water surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific warms abnormally, which raises temperatures around the world and triggers weather extremes \u2014 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1042],"tags":[],"country":[],"authors":[],"class_list":["post-4021","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-brics-plus-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>The Global South Will Be the First to Take the Hit from El Ni\u00f1o - BRICS Business Magazine - EN<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/bricsmagazine.com\/en\/main-issue\/agenda\/brics-plus-news\/the-global-south-will-be-the-first-to-take-the-hit-from-el-nino\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ru_RU\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Global South Will Be the First to Take the Hit from El Ni\u00f1o - BRICS Business Magazine - EN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This summer, experts forecast an 80% probability that this climate phenomenon will set in. El Ni\u00f1o (&#171;little boy&#187; in Spanish) is the warm phase of a natural climate cycle. Every few years, the water surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific warms abnormally, which raises temperatures around the world and triggers weather extremes \u2014 [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/bricsmagazine.com\/en\/main-issue\/agenda\/brics-plus-news\/the-global-south-will-be-the-first-to-take-the-hit-from-el-nino\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"BRICS Business Magazine - EN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-06-08T13:31:54+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-06-08T13:31:56+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"tjilavian\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u041d\u0430\u043f\u0438\u0441\u0430\u043d\u043e \u0430\u0432\u0442\u043e\u0440\u043e\u043c\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"tjilavian\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"\u041f\u0440\u0438\u043c\u0435\u0440\u043d\u043e\u0435 \u0432\u0440\u0435\u043c\u044f \u0434\u043b\u044f \u0447\u0442\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 \u043c\u0438\u043d\u0443\u0442\u044b\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/bricsmagazine.com\/en\/main-issue\/agenda\/brics-plus-news\/the-global-south-will-be-the-first-to-take-the-hit-from-el-nino\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/bricsmagazine.com\/en\/main-issue\/agenda\/brics-plus-news\/the-global-south-will-be-the-first-to-take-the-hit-from-el-nino\/\",\"name\":\"The Global South Will Be the First to Take the Hit from El Ni\u00f1o - 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